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Heat Roster Bursting: Signing More Veterans Quickly
Looks like the hits keep coming for the Miami Heat and did anyone really expect otherwise? If you have the foresight and ability to concoct a plan to land three of the most talented free agents in NBA history, don’t you think the mental fortitude would be there to build a team around them, too? If you believe the talking heads on tv, then you would surely be doubting this Heat franchise. And tragically so.
Here’s the latest – first they start the day off by completing deals for fellow Gators Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem. Now they are finalizing the Zydrunas Ilgauskas deal, who has opted to play in Miami over all other takers, thanks in large part to Lebron James signing here and recruiting his old friend. (See Lebron’s tweet welcoming Big Z to South Beach)
Now, the Heat are reportedly finishing up a deal for Juwan Howard to join the Heat. This is a deal 16 years in the making (recall how Howard signed with the Heat back in 1996 only to have the NBA nix the deal on account of the fact that the Heat had no cap money left).
The final phase, for now, is to see which Heat free agents will stay. The Heat have extended a qualifying deal to Joel Anthony, who should take the deal. They also have been contacted by James Jones, Carlos Arroyo, and Jamaal Magloire with interest in staying in Miami.
That puts the Heat in a pretty good position to get out of the gate with this team. Not only is getting all their ducks in a row quickly key for the team’s identity, but it creates a fervor among players looking at their options to get in with Miami now and also gets the team plenty of time to start training together. The chemistry is going to have to be molded quickly team-wide. So far, so good.
James Jones Bought Out
The Sun-Sentinel is reporting that James Jones’ contract has been bought out. This means the Heat will not have to have his $4.65M on the books, but instead it will only count as $1.5M against the Heat’s payroll freeing up still even more buying power for the Heat.
The max contract that can be offered for free agents is $16.6M. Currently, the Heat only have Michael Beasley ($4.9M) and Mario Chalmers ($847K) on the books. They had a payroll of about $72M last season, which leaves basically $66M free to field a team.
Heat Kick Off 2009-2010 Season Tonight
The boys are back! Finally, after a long summer waiting to see what the Heat would do to build upon their momentum of getting back into the playoffs this past season, we get to see what the big plan is. Or was there one?
It seemed that Riley is staunchly fixed on waiting for this offseason to re-sign Dwyane Wade and add someone else to the mix. This has forced the Heat to be very crafty in regards to its financial picture, which the Heat have been able to do. They have tons of money coming off the books as only Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook are guaranteed to be on the books after this season.
So it’s audition time for this team – and the entire franchise is trying to show Wade that this is his current and future home. What to expect?
First of all, who’s in and who’s out. In: Carlos Arroyo, Quentin Richardson and Shavlik Randolph. Out: Mark Blount, and Jamario Moon. The Heat finished 43-39 last season, and lost to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the playoffs.
What about who’s playing when and where? Expect to see the shift is on as Michael Beasley is going to start at PF while fan favorite Udonis Haslem shifts to the bench. Also, it has been rumored that Q-Rich has jostled his way into the starting lineup at SF, where Beasley was playing last season. Rounding things out will be Jermaine O’neal at C, Mario Chalmers at PG and Dwyane Wade, as always, at SG.
The bench looks intriguing. Questions abound over the role that Carlos Arroyo, Daequan Cook and even Dorell Wright will play. What kind of minutes will they get? When Chris Quinn returns, what is the point guard situation going to look like? Haslem will try his hand at coming off the bench, but it will only be successful if Beasley can show that he can rebound and defend better. Beasley, coming off a tumultous offseason, has seemingly gotten things on track in his personal life and is looking to take the next step in his professional career. Again, the growth potential of this young team is what will be assessed, and the result will be how far they can reach into the playoffs.
This is an audition of sorts. Dwyane Wade wants to be in Miami but only if it is in his best interests – he wants to win, not just make money. If this team can show growth, perhaps get into the 2nd round or deeper, then Wade should be a lock to stay. Who will remain with him, however, will remain to be seen.
Expectations: This team has enough youth to create a higher ceiling. Cook, Beasley, Chalmers – all can take drastic steps forward. The bench is stronger as there are more options to play with – let’s not forget James Jones’ ability to contribute to this team. There doesn’t, however, feel like there is too much of a difference between last year and this year so it is reasonable to expect a 40+ win season and a berth to the playoffs. The difference might be once the Heat reach the playoffs – I’m expecting at least a 2nd round appearance. Can Wade play another MVP-like season? We’ll soon find out.
Quentin Richardson Comes to Miami
Q Dog? Really?
Miami just changed its offseason fortunes a bit by dealing center Mark Blount to the Timberwolves for Quentin Richardson, who has been shuffled around so much the guy must be dizzy.
Both Blount and Richardson are in the final year of their contracts, so financially this fits into the scheme of things Pat Riley is trying to do – keep it financially flexible for next year’s offseason. Blount was scheduled to make 7.9M this season while Richardson is due 9.4M. For Blount it is a return to the Timberwolves, the team the Heat originally acquired him from (along with Ricky Davis) before the 2007-2008 season for Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac, Wayne Simien and a first round pick. The debate on whether or not that deal worked out rages on.
It was the 4th time Richardson has been dealt this offseason – from the Knicks to the Grizzlies, to the Clippers and then the Timberwolves. The Heat, however, seem bent on keeping Richardson for the duration of the season:
“We are very excited to add Quentin Richardson,” Heat President Pat Riley said. “Over the course of his career, he has proven to be a fierce competitor, a great locker-room presence and a very prolific three-point shooter who may be one of the strongest perimeter players in the NBA. We feel that he will be able to match up well against the top scorers in the league.”
Richardson has been eyed by the Heat brass for some time now, actually. His ability to score is going to offer the Heat more punch, but where exactly he will fit remains to be seen. Richardson can play SG or SF, and will offer some depth to the Heat’s options of Dwyane Wade and Daequan Cook. Cook’s minutes seem to be potentially the most impacted of all here and with the Heat losing Jamario Moon to the Cavs, the depth at SF just regained itself a bit with Richardson adding to the rotation of Dorell Wright, James Jones, Yakhouba Diawara and an occasional appearance from Michael Beasley.
Heat vs. Hawks: Game 1 Tonight
Game 1 for the Heat is tonight at 8pm on TNT. Who has the edge? Who will take the series? We’ll break it down position by position and give you our take on who lives to press on for the title.
A couple of important references to begin with:
Our series preview thread – join in and tell us what you think of the matchups
Our game 1 thread – follow the action with us (hey, we’re on the road)
Let’s break this down and see who we like in this series, starting with the head to head matchups.
Head to Head
The Heat only won 1 of the 4 meetings with the Hawks this season, but you might as well scratch that final game which came on April 14th when both teams pretty much had their post season tickets punched. From a glance at the matchups, the most troubling trend is the Heat’s inability to rebound and allowing a player like Al Horford to get 22 rebounds will not help. Also, we need to consider the impact of a Jermaine O’neal, although he is not rebounding with the tenacity the Heat would like he does defend in the post and blocks shots. This should have an impact on how the matchups shake out on the court.
| Heat | Hawks | |
| FG% | .457 | .458 |
| FT% | .754 | .737 |
| PTs | 98.3 | 98.1 |
| RBs | 39.5 | 40.0 |
| ASTs | 20.4 | 20.2 |
| STs | 7.9 | 7.4 |
| BLKs | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| 3P% | .357 | .366 |
| W/L | 43-39 | 47-35 |
When you look at the stats for both teams, it is basically a wash. Neither team seems to have an advantage over the other. The head to head matchups could have gone either way so really, the main advantage can be that the Hawks have home court advantage. Can the Heat win on the road? They were 15-26 on the road while the Hawks were 16-25. This is shaping up to be a home and home series, which favors the Hawks.
Let’s look at the individual matchups.
Point Guard
Mike Bibby vs. Mario Chalmers
Bibby has the edge in terms of his veteran savy, but does he have big game experience? Yes. He was a crucial part of those strong Kings teams that mashed the Lakers each post season, ultimately losing to the Lakers in a controversial 7 game series. He also helped guide the upstart Hawks last season to a near upset of the Celtics.
As for Chalmers, all he did was hit a cluth three to give his Kansas Jayhawks a chance to steal the title from Derrick Rose’s Memphis team. Chalmers has shown an ability to play under pressure all season and has quietly amassed some impressive defensive stats, notably steals, as a rookie. He can hit the three shooting .367 from behind the arc in his rookie campaign.
Bibby is shooting .390 from behind the three, so the advantage would go to Bibby there. Defensively, however, Chalmers is a little more effective, generating steals and working very well in tandem with Dwyane Wade to disrupt a team’s backcourt. Still, in terms of raw statistical production coupled with experience, the edge has to go to Bibby here.
Shooting Guard
Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson
Joe Johnson may not have the household name, but his game demands lots of respect. He can score, defend, rebound and handle the ball. He is the leader de facto on this team and as such is the focus of their offense. Sound familiar? Dwyane Wade does the same thing for his team.
But let’s be realistic, Dwyane Wade does it on a higher level. There may be no player in the league, save Kevin Garnett, who hates losing more. It is one thing to be competitive, but also to have that rare mix of confidence that generates a will which is indomitable. That would be Dwyane Wade’s greatest asset – he won’t allow his team to lose. None since Jordan have displayed this kind of uncanny mixture of talent and competitive fire. This gives Wade the edge and in the end, may be the determining factor for the Heat’s success.
Small Forward
James Jones vs. Marvin Williams
Marvin Williams, it can be said, has not quite met the level of expectation for being a #2 pick. Sure, he has made progress this season, scoring and rebounding better and also showing an added dimension for shooting the ball, but he has not been consistent enough. There have been weeks when the guy just doesn’t factor into the Hawks success. He also missed 16 games with lower back injuries begging the question if he will be healthy enough for this series. He did muster up 15 minutes against Miami in the final matchup of the season.
James Jones started the year off badly – having to get surgery to start the year off and not playing until late December. Yet, over the last month, Jones has seen an increase in PT. His shot is starting to be more consistent and the defense and leadership is there. If it isn’t, however, the Heat also have Yakhouba Diawara and the man who has made many Heat fans forget about Shawn Marion, Jamario Moon. I give the advantage to the Heat as they certainly have more capable bodies to throw in there and counter various matchup problems the Hawks may exploit.
Power Forward
Udonis Haslem vs. Josh Smith
This is an odd matchup because both of these guys are undersized for their positions, but have unique skill sets that allow them to play the position. For Josh Smith, he has an ultra-athletic game with skying dunks and amazing blocks. He is dangerous if he gets hot from outside but his primary game offensively is around the basket. He can run and finish.
Haslem is that classic Miami Heat power forward in the mold of a Grant Long in that he will outwork you and be tenacious on both ends of the floor. Haslem’s offense is based on hitting mid range jumpers from around the floor which will provide space for Jermaine O’neal and a target for Dwyane Wade. He can defend more athletic players at the PF position, but has trouble with players who are larger.
Smith’s explosive ability to score gives him the edge, but it cannot be overlooked that the Heat have rookie Michael Beasley in their arsenal who can counter offensively what Smith might do.
Center
Jermaine O’neal vs. Al Horford
Horford has made strides and has shown an ability to rebound the basketball as well as finish around the basket area. These are going to be the primary goals for Jermaine O’neal who will be asked to limit the young center’s production. Horford’s game is similar to Dwight Howards so this is not going to be an easy task for the elder O’neal to achieve.
Going for O’neal is the fact that he can still score from outside and block shots. He plays a smart game, but does not rebound the ball particularly well which is something the Heat need more of to have better success in the playoffs. The question is, will O’neal be healthy enough to play? He has said he will play in this series, much like Udonis Haslem, despite sitting out the last few games.
I’d call this a wash because the Heat have more experience and savy that will make up for any shortcomings in O’neal’s game at this point. That said, no matchup is more crucial for either team than center for the Heat since they have very little depth at the position.
Final Analysis
If we look at the tally here, that would favor the Heat in terms of matchups. Combined with the Hawks having home court advantage throughout and the fact that they play well at home, this is looking like the stats indicate – a wash.
Dwyane Wade, however, makes the difference. We saw it in 2006 in the Finals, and now we see a healthy Wade playing at an unbelievably high level – probably better than he ever has played before. The Hawks are challenged with stopping him not just one night, but at least 4 nights out of this seven game series. That is a tall order.
My pick is the Heat winning this series in 6 games, splitting the first two in Atlanta.
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