The Miami Heat are in an interesting quandry. Should they draft Michael Beasley if he is available with the 2nd pick? Or should they trade down and scoop up someone with more value?
If Rose is available it seems clear that Miami would take him right away.
This is the basic question Miami is asking itself going into their 7:40 pm slot to make their pick on this Thursday. Should Miami take Beasley, they will give themselves a very good prospect that is going to come into the league and be ready to make an impact right away. They will have themselves another front court player that can shoot, score and block shots. Currently, Shawn Marion fits that role and the Heat hope to see more from Dorrell Wright as well this season.
Yet, there are many who seem to think Miami will not take Beasley, but intensely question his work ethic and maturity. With such a high pick, the feeling is it has to be a lock for Miami. If there are doubts, they could trade down, risk passing on Beasley but instead get more known quantities in a deal.
Rumor Volat
Rumor does fly, especially on the internet. There are rumors circulating that the Heat are in talks with the Memphis Grizzlies about a possible deal that would net the Heat Mike Miller, Kyle Lowry and the #5 pick for the #2 pick, clearly as part of a package deal. There are even discussions that the Heat are trying to get Conley from the Grizzlies and that the Heat would throw in Daequan Cook.
Another possibility finds the Heat dealing with the NY Knicks, there one-time rivals. The deal would be something akin to the Knicks sending Stephon Marbury and the 6th pick overall to Miami for Shawn Marion and Mark Blount. This would give the Heat the #2 and #6 picks in the draft and there are rumblings of the Heat being very interested in Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Love and even OJ Mayo.
Then there is the Seattle possibility which is the Sonics will send Chris Wilcox and the #4 pick for the #2 and Mark Blount.
Yet there are many on the inside who think the Heat are over-analyzing this situation. The best player almost unanimously is Michael Beasley. If he does have some perceived maturity issues, it could be just a part of the fact that he is practically fresh out of high school. And as a protected jock that hasn’t had to do anything other than play basketball, his view of reality is going to be a little screwy. You don’t miss the boat on that kind of talent unless you get some serious value in return. Besides, what better way to drive down his value than to find some kind of kink in his talent and push the perceived value of Rose up. This makes Chicago all but challenged to not draft Rose and have Beasley fall to Miami.
Drafting Beasley remains the best option for Miami. They can still always work out a deal if they felt they needed to thin out the front court depth of Beasley, Marion, Haslem and Wright. In fact, that process has already begun a bit with the Heat releasing Alexander Johnson today.
Pat needs this team to stand pat. They should draft the #2 spot and hope it is Beasley that is available because he will make a better fit with Wade and will make an immediate impact while Rose has to learn the finer points of running an offense in the NBA. Not to mention, Beasley would make the Heat need Marion that much less which would drive up his value even more.
If the Heat can swing a deal for another draft pick in this draft, that would be a solid choice but not at the expense of Dwyane Wade, Daequan Cook (unless it was really high) or the #2 pick.
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Deal or No Deal?
The question is becoming paramount, almost the defining point of this season – should Miami trade for help or not?
The Heat are 8-24 and even as Ira Winderman points out, it is with great optimism at this point the Heat could get back to contending for a playoff spot. Let alone a shot at the title. The Heat would have to win 33 of their remaining 50 games to get to that .500 winning percentage which basically assures a playoff spot. That means 33-17 the rest of the way and there is no reason to estimate that as probable.
The season, as it stands, is a failure. The only questions to be answered is how many games will Whaq show up for and how many games will Riley coach from here on out.
The Heat have to commit to the future – that is what Riley himself seems to be commenting about.
So the answer is obvious – the Heat are in win maybe mode. They need to refocus on the young players they have (Cook, Wright, Barron, Quinn, Joel Anthony and Alexander Johnson) and see where that takes them. Maybe even Cook, Wright and Wade could turn out to be something akin to the Odom, Butler and Wade lineup that was on the verge of shocking the world (at least Indiana) in the 2003-2004 season.
Even Isiah Thomas, the league’s worst GM, realizes that today’s NBA game is a small man’s game. Riley, for all his coaching talents, has only begun to realize this last season. At least publicly. But let’s not make the same mistake Thomas has made – taking whatever is available and forcing it to work – that seems to be what this past offseason was about.
Sure, Riley tried this offseason: yet as Yoda says, “do or do not, there is no try”. And he did not improve the Heat’s chances with the players he acquired. Thankfully, he did not put the Heat in as bad of a position as Isiah did with the contracts he got in return. Arison wouldn’t sign off on it.
The Heat now are forced to build around what they have. What they have is a frustrated young superstar in Wade who doesn’t like losing. What they have is a grumpy old center that has to find a way to recover his game as it slips from his mighty hands. Shaq’s refusal to reinvent himself in his latter years is the true reason why Miami is faced with the fall from grace few championship teams have ever faced. The Heat look more like a flash in the pan than a sustaining force. A trend more than a classic.
But there is hope if one chooses to see it. Daequan Cook looks to be a legit NBA scorer with star potential – he has the mental makeup to stay in this league and build with Wade. So does Dorell Wright – when Riley actually plays the both of them which injury has forced him to.
Riley’s inability to change also has been his downfall. Stan Van Gundy always showed an ability to work with whatever he was given – just look at how much his team changed from 03-04 to 04-05 and how the Heat sustained success. He did something even Riley in his rigidness could not do.
There should be no deal for Miami unless it is a deal for the future and not for the now. Any deal to try and salvage this season should be predicated on the fact that the Heat are not going to win a championship this season but look to the future instead. If Riley, proving stubborn and ever the optimist, makes the mistake of dealing for parts to win now, he is mortgaging the future on his narrow view as a coach instead of a broader view which is demanded of a GM.
There is no greater illustration of this than Riley’s gamble on Jason Williams knees. The Heat’s 2007-2008 season was bet on his creaky knees being healthy and as a result the Heat franchise has stumbled and now are found on their knees.