It is very palatable right now to put all the blame on Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. The Heat are 9-8 and caught in a downward spiral. The haters are out in full force and citing that Dwyane Wade and Lebron James are not a great match on the court.

The latest evidence comes to us from Dallas tonight in a 106-95 loss. The Heat couldn’t get a road win tonight and, in fact, haven’t had a win in 13 straight regular season matchups with the Mavericks going back to 2004. You can wipe away the memory of the 2006 championship – certainly Erick Dampier has moved on. As tonight the Heat were dominated in practically every facet of the game. The stats don’t tell the true story; the 3rd quarter does though. The Mavericks scored at will, posting 31 points to the Heat’s paltry 17. It was like watching a fat kid at a buffet – both disgusting and painful to watch. And it seemingly happened all too fast.

So, what happened? People will cite the lack of preparation, the lack of energy, the lack of defense, the lack of a reliable and consistent post presence. All of it is bunk. This team knew what to expect – they are now 17 games into the season and have seen how every team is coming out gunning for them every night. Doesn’t matter who they play.

When you have last year’s MVP and a 2006 Finals MVP on the same squad, not to mention 3 gold medal winners from the past Olympic team, you don’t expect performance anxiety. Yet, this team did fail when it had a pretty good chance in the 4th quarter with just under 5 minutes to go. The Heat were down by 6, 98-92 with 4:52 left. What they did next was telling – they shot three pointers. And they missed.

Spoelstra brought this team into camp with the focus being on defense. That was the foundation of this team – defense and getting the ball into transition. He was right, the Heat ran out of the gate despite an opening hiccup against the Celtics. Yet, as of late, this team is playing confused and with no sense of identity.

As the coach, this is something Erik Spoelstra needs to address. Many feel that Pat Riley would have a strong enough personality and message to get this team to buy into the identity. That from Riley can be forged the path upon which this team must walk. This may be true, as Riley notes the 15 strong theme from 2006, but that isn’t something this team doesn’t already know. Wade and James are the de facto leaders of this team – despite what ink may be spilled over Chris Bosh’s presence. They both have lead their teams to postseason successes and know what it takes to get there. Is there a chance that this work in progress is coming along more slowly that anticipated? Yes. Might the fans be suffering from the overhype? Yes. Do people have a right to be concerned about Spoelstra’s ability to guide this team? Yes, they should.

Spoelstra has the credentials to be a fine NBA coach. He even has the personality you would like to see in a young coach. He can relate to his players and even help them get their games where they need to be. Dwyane Wade cited years ago that his work with Coach Spo’ helped him develop his outside shooting.

Pat Riley could definitely coach this team and get things moving in the right direction. At least for this season. But what about next? Who would take over then? And how much credibility would that person have after seeing Riley swoop in and take over for two of his former proteges? At Riley’s age, does he really want to subject himself to the tortures of NBA life on the road coaching these players? Sure, it is tempting, but Riley has proven himself to be a mastermind – he completed the journey in 2006 by leading the Heat to a title. For his next trick he pulled off the impossible and landed the new big three this offseason. There is little to gain for the old master.

In many ways, axing Spoelstra would be a huge mistake for this franchise. It would be admitting defeat and failure. It would possibly even have mislead the guys who did come here, too. This is a new era, a story that will be written by a new voice – as it should be. The Stan Van Gundy era ended not because he was incapable or even because he really wanted to be with his family, it was because the dissidents grew so loud that Riley had no choice but to save face. Sure, this wasn’t necessarily a problem for Riley given the temptation of winning another title and the accolades that would accompany it. In this situation, with Spoelstra, it would be almost unforgivable. This is Spoelstra’s best shot ever for coaching in the NBA and being successful. If not now, then when?

For Riley, it would literally be a step down. Sure, it would be something of a certainty that the Heat would be in good hands and would get things rolling in the right direction. It would just come at great cost and would be a move made too premature.

This is a tough situation. Spoelstra has the promise to be a very good coach in this league. The question is, can he guide this team to a championship? Is he ready to do so? His task is now less about strategy and watching film as it is about forging an identity and seeing it through. He has to sell this team on what it needs to do and to do it. Now, more than ever, when the chips are down. The spotlight is on this team. The doubters are having their say. This is the ultimate test for a champion, its ultimate obstacle. Every story has its protagonist, its antagonist. There is always tension and a release. The question is, will the release bring about a happy ending or not? Erik Spoelstra will figure to be an author, perhaps the author, of this drama. Taking him out this early would turn this into a stale rerun more than a special story.