Analysis of the Heat

February 20, 2006 · Filed Under Uncategorized · 2 Comments 

Now that we’ve passed the All-Star Break, I thought I’d do a little analysis of the Heat (and other contenders) so far. I’m going to use a stat devised by John Hollinger called PER (Player Efficiency Rating), since it is a good evaluator of a player’s offensive ability (and since offensive and defensive ratings aren’t available). Just in advance, the league average for this stat is set at 15.00. Dwyane Wade has the 2nd highest PER in the league at 28.9 (and the highest PER on the Heat), behind only LeBron’s 29.3. Shaq is tops among centers in PER for yet another season, with a PER of 24.4. Four players on the Heat have a PER higher than the league average of 15.00 so far (Wade, Shaq, Zo with a PER of 18.8, and JWill with a PER of 15.4).

In comparison, the Spurs also have 4 players with a PER over 15.00 (3 of them-Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili-with a PER over 20.00; the 4th player in Udrih has a PER of 17.6 but doesn’t play enough minutes to make much of an impact). The Pistons have 5 players with a PER over 15.00 (Billups, Hamilton, Sheed, Ben Wallace, and Mo Evans). The Suns also have 5 players with a PER over 15.00 (Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Eddie House, Boris Diaw, and Leandro Barbosa). However, the Mavs have 7 players with a PER over 15.00 (Dirk, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry, Devin Harris, Keith Van Horn, and Marquis Daniels). It’s not surprising, as a result, to see that they have the best record in the West.

On the Heat: James Posey and GP are undervalued using this stat because they don’t take a lot of shots in the first place (even though both are very efficient on offense), thus they have a low (very low in Posey’s case) PER. Haslem also has a below average PER even though he’s having a decent season (though not as good as last season) because he doesn’t use a lot of possessions. Walker is having the most efficient season shooting-wise of his career (true shooting percentage-stat that takes into account 3-point shooting and free throws-of 52.2%), but has a PER of only 14.7 because even though he is shooting better than he has in his entire career, his shooting still isn’t very good compared to the rest of the league.

Now, as for what we need to do in the 2nd half of the season: our turnovers have to go down. We’re averaging 15.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, which is 14th in the NBA. Our offensive rebounding has to improve. Our offensive rebounding percentage is .268, which is also only 14th in the league (offensive rebounding was also one of our weaknesses last season, so I don’t see us improving much, if at all, in this area).

On the defensive end, it’d help if we were a little more efficient in keeping our opponents from shooting well (we’re allowing our opponents to shoot 47.3% from the field using effective field goal percentage, which is 10th in the league). And we HAVE to force more turnovers on the defensive end (we’re only forcing 14.2 turnovers per 100 possessions, which is 29th in the league).

We’re averaging 110.9 points per 100 possessions (slightly higher than last season), which is 5th in the league. However, we’re allowing 105.9 points per 100 possessions (which is 12th in the league). Our defense needs to improve (though our offense could stand to improve as well).

Overall, our 33-20 record isn’t bad going into the 2nd half of the season considering Shaq has missed 18 games, JWill has missed 15 games (and is still getting his shooting touch back), and Haslem is playing with a broken finger. With the losing teams currently up on our schedule, we should improve our record considerably.

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Sho: Heat’s two headed beast at center

February 3, 2006 · Filed Under Uncategorized · Comment 

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Shaq was named to the East’s starting squad for the all-star game in Houston, but early on in the season, when Shaq was out, Alonzo Mourning could have made a case to start.

In fact, you could make a case to start both centers – after all, that is how the Heat are envisioning their big men in the paint being utilized.

Shaq is the offensive juggernaut. He is averaging 19.3 points per game in just 29.4 minutes. He is shooting 56.4 from the field, which leads the NBA, and it looks like even that number will rise (last season, Shaq shot 60% from the field). As Shaq gets healthy, and regains that agility and that scoring touch, his minutes will increase as his fouls decrease.

And then there is Zo, the fiery defensive presence who changes games. In limited minutes, averaging 21.3 per game on the year – but closer to 14 with Shaq back and healthy. A modern day Bill Russell, Zo is in prime form and proves his worth by altering an opposing team’s offensive approach. This may also be the best situation for him, after coming back from a rare kidney disease. His defense is only matched by his intensity, rejecting 3 shots a game and leading the NBA in blocks with 134. Oh, and he had 5 tonight, putting him up to 139 on the year.

Shaq is the offense. Zo is the defense. Together, they make “Sho” – the ultimate center in the NBA.

Let’s look at an example. In 35 minutes tonight against the Cavaliers, they grabbed 14 rebounds, had 7 blocks, scored 27 points on 11-16 from the field combined. This is the kind of production that Pat Riley envisioned with Shaq and Zo, and finally, with both healthy, the rewards are starting to present themselves.

Potentially, this is the kind of production you can expect on a normal night from “Sho”: 48 minutes of pure hell. The Heat have an anchor in the paint, a post-forward position to attack their opponents which will afford them many options: a strong half court game, a post presence on both offense and defense.

This two-headed monster will allow the Heat to slow the game down to grind down their opponents, crucial in the fourth quarter and for creating more opportunities for the Heat to shoot free throws as opposing teams begin to foul “Sho” and become plagued by foul trouble themselves.

It is like blood in the water. Coupled with the Heat’s backcourt, consisting of Wade, Williams and Payton, they have the ability to penetrate and draw fouls which will also create more free throw attempts for these perimeter players. The breakdown of an opposing team begins to fracture inside and becomes total once the Heat’s perimeter players attack the weakened defense.

And it all starts with “Sho”, the beast of a center which will be the foundation for this Heat team’s run.

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