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Dead in the Water
This isn’t how a season dies. This isn’t supposed to be how a team goes from playing meaningful games in September to all of a sudden coming up a bit short. No, this is sabotage. And it comes from within and burns with the betrayal of a close friend. It stinks like a rotting fish – which is what happened now.
The Marlins dismissed AJ Burnett for the rest of the season. McKeon called him into his office, told him the news that Josh Johnson was going to get the ball and to go and spend time with his family. AJ responded, “Right on.”. This coming only after a few days after the ‘explosion’ that rocked the Marlins teal universe – AJ’s rant on McKeon and the coaching staff.
Unfortunately, AJ is right. And only part of the problem has been dealt with here.
Ask yourself why Miguel Cabrera, the fun-loving young Marlin phenom, now sits in the locker room quietly as if at a funeral. The fun of baseball and of this team has been sucked dry – as if a ghoul was sent to this team to do so. That ghoul would take the form of a cigar-smoking 70-year old manager. And Rob Dibble was right all along.
Most of us in the stands never saw it coming to this. We were too blinded by our teal-colored lenses to see what was going on. We never thought Jack’s curmundginly style and AJ’s bitter angst would come to a contest such as this. The concoction was bitter from the start, and we are only now getting the bill – bad fish is the agent.
The Marlins just giving up is not even worth annotating. It has happened, as clear as the most recent box scores indicate. Players have given up not because they are bad players or bad people, but because they dont want to play for this team, for this situation. They are tired of it. The players themselves are good guys, hard working and serious about winning and about their jobs. There are a few bad apples that spoil the bunch and only one of them has been tossed out. AJ is gone.
But McKeon should have taken his own advice he gave to AJ. And he would have been trimming out the biggest spoiled fruit of them all.
The healing process is going to take time for this team. Mr. Loria has a lot to answer for now that his team, for the first time in its history, has underperformed. And that should be a good thing because expectation with this franchise has never been high until Mr. Loria got in here. This is about as bad as it could get, but there is hope. Change is most definetly coming – and it couldn’t come at a better time.
Payton signing will pay dividends for the Heat
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He’s a future Hall of Famer. He shot 46.8% from the field last season, with an effective field goal percentage of 49.7%. 8.8 assists per 48 minutes last season, 14th in the league. Had a 3.17 assists to turnover ratio last season, 12th in the NBA. Only 2.8 turnovers per 48 minutes last season (to put this in context, Dwyane Wade, the Heat’s de facto PG last season, averaged 4.2 turnovers in 39 MPG [5.2 per 48 minutes], and Jason Williams, our projected starting PG for next season, averaged 3.2 turnovers per 48 minutes last season). He’s one of the best passers in the league (5.2 assists per bad pass last season, compared to Wade’s 3.7 assists/ bad pass and Williams’ 4.4 assists/ bad pass last season). He drew fouls 10% of the time last season. And at this stage of his career, his ballhandling couldn’t be much better (only 28% of his turnovers last season were as a result of his ballhandling). And he signed at a 1-year risk-free minimum deal to be our backup PG next season.
These are none other than the numbers last season for newly acquired Gary Payton. The same Gary Payton who people thought was declining and well past his prime after watching him get dominated by Chauncey Billups in the 2004 NBA Finals. The same Gary Payton who people thought was a locker room cancer, yet put up some of his career-best numbers last season in leading the Boston Celtics to the Atlantic Division title. And the same Gary Payton who wasn’t actively pursued by teams until this late in the free agency period, despite the strong numbers he put up last season. And the Miami Heat were able to sign him without spending a penny of their $5 million mid-level exception.
Call it the bargain of the off-season.
First of all, consider that we still have the full MLE to spend on a shooter who can hit the 3, and the $1.8 million trade exception acquired from the Charlottle Bobcats in the Malik Allen for Steve Smith deal (though that trade exception essentially is worth $900,000 to whichever team the Heat trade it to – if they do so). You can’t say the same thing had the Heat pursued other free agent point guards such as Steve Blake, Dan Dickau, Earl Watson, or Brevin Knight, among others, who were more expensive but not as good for the short-term as Payton. And though point guards like Dajuan Wagner and Jay Williams were available for the minimum, neither could have provided the quality nor health security that Payton presents here.
Also consider that, if for some unlikely reason this deal doesn’t work out and Payton is a bust, we can always waive him or trade him to another team in search of a proven PG. After all, he’s only making the minimum this year, so it wouldn’t cause us to take much of a hit in the salary cap even if we did waive him (nor would it be much of a hit for the team we trade it to, if it comes down to that). We would still have a portion of the MLE or the trade exception left to go after another backup PG to help us for the championship run.
This signing gives us some much-needed depth at the point guard position. Think of it this way: if Payton put up numbers that good last season and will only be the backup, think of how good (and how much younger and more athletic) Jason Williams, the starter, is (and was last season). Also consider how good we would be even if Williams goes down at some point of this season due to an injury. Payton would be able to step right in and do the job without a problem.
Most importantly, look at the team’s PG status this season compared to last season. While Damon Jones was an excellent and underrated PG for us last season (just look at his 3-point shooting percentage and effective field goal shooting percentage last season), he’s still not as good of a PG as Jason Williams, who can do pretty much everything on the court, especially on the offensive end.
And at backup, it’s not even close. Payton is head and shoulders above Keyon Dooling. Last season, his effective field goal shooting was 6.7% better than Dooling’s. He had a higher assists to bad pass ratio and a better assists to turnover ratio. While 41.5% of Dooling’s turnovers were a result of his ballhandling last season, only 27.7% of Payton’s turnovers were as a result of his. Not to mention Payton’s numbers will most likely only go up playing with playmakers like Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal, who will be creating plenty of open looks for him.
Sure, he may have lost a step and isn’t as good a defender as he used to be. But for only the minimum, considering the numbers he put up last season and the fact that he’s an improvement over our backup PG last season in Dooling, he may end up being the steal of the offseason.
Finally, Payton
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The Heat signed Gary Payton to a veteran minimum contract of $1.1M earlier today. This was the same kind of contract the Heat re-signed Shandon Anderson to only a few days earlier.
This is a coup, ladies and gentlemen. Why? The Heat not only obtained an experienced point guard with a wide assortment of skills, but got him on board for huge value. The Heat still retain their $5 million mid-level salary cap exception as well as their $1.9 million trade exception.
But make no mistake, this is not a surprise, no matter what some reports may claim. The Heat have been looking at Payton for some time now, the most recent mentionings coming into the press on September 11th – but this courtship has been going on since late July, early August. Here are some sources:
Shaq wants Payton
Miami Heatzone Discussion Sept. 11
Miami Heatzone Discussion Sept. 5
Miami Herald – Heat contact Payton Aug. 9
Apparently, trade talks with the Wizards had broken down and the Heat opted not to go after Blake but instead focus on their discussions with Payton.
Marlins magic is done
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The Marlins are mathematically still in the wild card race, but you cannot realistically involve them in the race for anything other than spoiler at this point. Even as a fan.
The Marlins are now 3 games out, losing in extra innings to the Mets who may have already nailed the coffin down even tighter on this 2005 season for the Marlins.
This team has not played consistently enough to assert its position, despite taking over the lead of the wild card race when Dontrelle Willis got his 20th win of the season. It wasn’t that long ago either, only 2 series back against the Astros, as the Marlins took the first two games of that series.
Then the Phillies rolled into town, and instead of exacting revenge for the poor showing the Marlins had in Philly, they blew a 2-0 lead with Willis on the mound to lose the game in the top of the 9th inning. If that is even possible, but the Phillies put a 10-spot on the board to rip the game out of the Marlins’ collective jaws.
That may have killed the season. But the Marlins bounced back the next day and beat the Phillies to avoid the sweep. That damage, it seems has already been done.
The loss to the Mets last night at Shea may just be piling the dirt. It looks bleak, and although the Marlins are still in the race, it just seems like it would take a miracle – bigger than Bartman – to get it done.
Heat re-sign Anderson and explore other possibilities
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The Heat solidified its rotation and depth at the small forward position by re-signing Shandon Anderson to a veteran minimum contract. Anderson, a 31-year-old veteran, is expected to continue to provide the strong perimeter defense since being acquired from the Knicks last season. But he is not, as suggested by Ira Winderman, going to be the answer off the bench for the Heat beyond James Posey. I would suggest that Antoine Walker come off the bench at the small forward position, with Wayne Simien being the backup at power forward. This alleviates the need for the Heat to acquire another player, spend more money, and have to figure out what to do with its already booming roster.
Anderson was signed to the veteran’s minimum, a special contract which can be used by any team as often as it wants to fill out its roster for eligible players. This also leaves the entire $5 million mid-level salary-cap exception intact for the Heat as well as its $1.9 million trade exception. This of course gives the Heat a lot of payroll flexibility and options to explore at this time.
In fact, Ira Winderman also reports that the Heat are taking a “second look” at free-agent Rodney White, a small forward that was the 2001 first-round pick of the Pistons, and is also looking at former Stanford standout Casey Jacobsen and Jason Kapono who played for the Bobcats last season. Both players are expected to provide outside shooting, something the Heat have been criticized of lacking going into this season. Both players have demonstrated this skill, hitting 3 pointers at clips of .373 and .474, respectfully, for their young careers.
Also according to Ira Winderman, the Heat are earmarking their entire $5 million exception for free-agent point guard Gary Payton who played for Boston last season. Reports have surfaced ranging from Shaq’s desire to have Gary Payton in Miami and even to a recent remark by Pat Riley which suggested that the Heat envision a spot for the veteran in their backup point guard role.
Stay tuned to the Miami Heatzone for more details.
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