MiamiHeatwave

The Pacers threatened in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Miami’s home court. They came away scratching their heads and feeling like they just missed out on a huge statement to open the series. Yet, the salvo has been fired, and the statement was made – this team can actually beat the Miami Heat in a game. The question is, can they do it consistently and for an entire series?

Game 2 held the answer, and it was an emphatic “yes”. The Pacers were able to get over the hump – and the criticism hurled against Frank Vogel for not leaving in Roy Hibbert in the closing seconds was reversed as he kept Hibbert in and Miami was unable to level the game and force another OT. The Pacers emerged victorious 97-93.

So the narrative becomes, imagine if the Pacers closed out Game 1? They would be up 2-0 heading back to Indiana for favorable odds to dislodge the reigning NBA champs.

But is that really the story? There is something to consider here – yes, the Pacers have the ability to beat the Heat, but truthfully the Heat just haven’t played their game yet. Let’s chew on some stats:

• In Game 2, the Pacers shot 50%. They shot 44.6% in Game 1. So, they improved their FG% and got an improved result. That tells us nothing unexpected – if you improve your efficiency and hold all other aspects of your game, then you should get a better result. They got a win.
• The Pacers shot 28.6% from three point range in Game 1, then shot 41.7% in Game 2. Again, improvement leads to better result.
• Another important phase of the game is free throw shooting. In Game 1, the Pacers shot 75% and in Game 2 they shot 81%. But you already know what I am going to say and yep, improvement leads to better result.

What about the Heat?

• In Game 1, Miami shot 47.7% from the field and in Game 2 shot 46.6%. Slight decrease but then again, the differential between these two teams is knife blade thin. 
• In Game 1, the Heat shot 27.8% from three and 31.8% in Game 2. An improvement but of their 73 FG attempts, 22 were from three point range. Only 18 of the 86 FG attempts in Game 1 were from three. This indicates either more willingness to shoot threes, or an inability to get into the lane.
• Which brings us to free throws. In Game 1 the Heat generated 25 FTAs but only shot 64%. In Game 2, they were able to nab 26 FTAs (Game 1 did have OT, remember) which shows improvement but they also only hit on 69% of them. Again, that is an improvement from Game 1, but in comparison to the regular season, hardly “Heat-worthy”.

Everything else is pretty even down the line. Rebounds slightly favor the Pacers, but nothing too substantial to really point at. Considering that the Pacers entire offensive game is predicated on the low post with David West and Roy Hibbert getting a bulk of the work, this is to be expected.

Yet, the Heat have not shown their A game yet. They haven’t shot particularly well while the Pacers have been above their averages. The Heat’s free throw shooting has been uncharacteristically bad – and when you have a differential in this series of 1 point in Game 1 and 4 points in Game 2, that is critical. Ray Allen only makes one out of two free throws? Lebron James with 2 turnovers in close out time, the final minute of the game? These are trends that are not likely to continue.

The series shifts to Indiana where the Pacers will surely favor having the home crowd and, arguably, a much more livelier and basketball-intelligent crowd than in Miami. In order for the Heat to get back in this series, they will have to play Heat basketball. That means playing strong, aggressive defense that traps the perimeter players of the Pacers and forces them to struggle in delivering the ball to the post.

There will be adjustments – on both sides. And everyone will have a theory. Realistically, the Heat have not had their signature game yet in the series with Battier, Allen, and even a hobble Mike Miller not hitting threes. Nothing has been signature Miami and when that happens expect to lose. The fact that they have been able to win a game speaks volumes of where this series is heading. The Pacers should feel good but they also recognize this series has not yet really been played at the level it is capable of going. Miami came out and blew out the Bulls a few times after blowing Game 1 in that series. Miami very well could do the same to Indiana.